The media has been growing increasingly optimistic about the stock market, with sentiment shifting to positivity after months of expressing worry about valuations and questioning the “Trump bump”. However, a sobering new outlook has just been shared by fund manager PIMCO, who sees a recession and correction looming. While PIMCO says that the chances of a recession in the next 6 to 12 months is less than 10%, it says there is around 70% likelihood of one in the next 5 years. It cautions on its forecast though, saying that recessions are notoriously hard to forecast.
OxWFD: The economy itself looks healthy at the moment, but the geopolitical environment does not. We do not expect a recession in the near term.