For all those worried about the end of the bull market, Barron’s has just put out a new article warning that it may be looming. The piece walks through a number of scenarios for how the bull market might end. There are seven different factors which it identifies as possible catalyst to ending the bull run: a Fed mistake, inflation, China, antitrust, the end of QE, geopolitics, local politics. It argues that longevity, high prices, and bad politics are usually not enough to cause a bear market. Recession is what usually stokes it, and it is worried about the first four catalysts. The fed mistiming rate hikes, or a lack thereof could cause big issues, as could a collapse in China, or a big antitrust movement against large tech companies.
OxWFD: We think a meltdown in China would cause by far the biggest market losses and recession, but mismanaged rate hikes could also cause issues. An antitrust movement against tech would be bad, but it seems quite farfetched right now.